Scribe Report 1/16/2020
By Sean M. Smith
Filling in for President Bob, President-Elect Kent Steinbrueck called the meeting to order by the ringing of our Rotary Bell. Kent then led us in the Pledge of Allegiance and reciting of the 4-Way Test. Denise Wondolowski provided the invocation and Beth Russell led us in singing “I’d Like to Teach the World to Sing.”
There was only one announcement—a reminder that the Club Trivia night will be taking place on February 29, 2020 and there are still tables available.
Following an amusing story regarding his early investment history, Sergeant-at-Arms Dan Conway introduced guests and our perennial visiting Rotarian, J. Gary Neal.
Kent Steinbrueck then returned to the podium to plug our upcoming programs:
- January 23 – Jim Kavanaugh, CEO of World Wide Technologies, will be speaking about #MLSinSTL
- January 30 – Tom Chulick, President & CEO of the St. Louis Regional Chamber of Commerce
Kent then introduced our very own Juli Niemann who provided her State of the Economy (along with the customary slide-a-palooza). Highlights of her presentation included:
- Her opening slide set the tone with the commentary that “Both diapers and politicians needed to be changed regularly.”
- Overall, our economy is doing “OK”
- She said that presidential tweets only cause short-lived anxiety in our markets but seem to be more of a concern in world markets. We have become accustomed to this and our stock market tends to only react to the Federal Reserve. The bottom line is that nothing significant has changed with our economy over the last year.
- With regard to gasoline, we shouldn’t see a rise in prices except on a seasonal basis. This is due to a larger supply. The U.S. is now able to export both oil and natural gas as a result of (controversial) fracking efforts. We are also seeing many substitutes for gasoline, so she anticipates a steady decline in the use of gas for vehicles over the next several years.
- Boeing’s recent issues are having an impact on the economy.
- Tariffs are also having an impact on the economy. She stated that the tariffs are working to protect the targeted industry; however, they are reducing the overall growth in the economy.
- For St. Louis specifically, she said we are experiencing a rising market in real estate.
- She said that many people watching the market are concerned about a recession, but there are no signs of a recession in sight. However, she does expect to see a slowdown in market growth.
- Today, Millennials tend to be more interested in spending money on experiences rather than “stuff”. So, rather than collecting, they are disposing. This in turn results in not as much moving from one house to another.
- Her concerns for the economy include:
- AI (or “black box”) trading – impacting when money moves in/out of accounts
- Compression of incomes – many families once considered to be upper middle-class and middle-class now fall into the lower middle-class category (with people working multiple jobs)
- Budget deficit – we are in the worst deficit due to recent tax cuts
- Long-term economic concerns include:
- Debt refunding – we will experience issues with the interest rate goes up
- Our relationship with China
- Aging infrastructure (bridges, coastal seaports, etc.)
- Her advice was:
- Don’t be tempted by speculations such as Bitcoin
- Don’t ignore risk in your portfolios and de-risk for volatility
- In summary, she said all of the problems mentioned are future problems, not current. She reemphasized that “the economy is OK” (but you should de-risk portfolios).
At the close of her presentation, Kent thanked Juli and presented her with the book that will be donated in her name.
As the final order of business, Ralph Decker’s ticket was drawn for the 50/50. With $1,384 on the line, Ralph picked the 9 of Hearts, so the pot remains intact until our next meeting on January 23.
With that, Kent adjourned the meeting with the ringing of the Rotary Bell at 1:15pm.